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Seasonal Variation in the Interest of Aesthetic Breast Surgery

Christina Kerner BA, Samuel Boas BS, Arvin Smith BS, Yida Cai BA, Lesley Somerville BS ScM, Corinne Wee MD, Anand Kumar MD
Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, University Hospitals
2020-02-14

Presenter: Christina Kerner

Affidavit:
Anand Kumar MD

Director Name: Anand Kumar MD

Author Category: Medical Student
Presentation Category: Clinical
Abstract Category: Aesthetics

Background: Google Trends (GT) is a publicly available online tool which allows users to track search volumes over time. GT has the potential to inform plastic surgeons of the needs and interests of their patient population. Our investigation utilizes internet search query data to test the hypothesis that interest in aesthetic breast surgery varies by season, with increased interest in the summer months.

Methods: GT was assessed from January 2004 to June 2019. Data was delivered from GT in monthly intervals based on relative search volumes. Search terms included: "Breast Augmentation", "Breast Reduction", "Breast Lift", and "Mastopexy". Using the R Consinor analysis 'seasons' package described in previous studies, each search term was tested for seasonal affects by fitting the monthly search data to a parametric cosinor model. Means from summer (June-September) and winter (November-February) were compared. A non-stationary seasonal model was generated with Markov chain Monte Carlo samples to analyze the change in the seasonal pattern from year to year.

Results: Consinor analysis revealed statistically seasonal effects of search queries for cosmetic breast surgery (p= <0.05). Non-stationary seasonal modelling showed the overall trend in public interest in "Breast Augmentation", "Mastopexy", and "Breast Reconstruction" surgery decreased from 2005 to 2019, while interest in "Breast Lift" increased from 2010 to 2019.

Conclusions: Internet search volumes over a wide range of dates demonstrated seasonal interest in cosmetic breast surgery. Further study is recommended to demonstrate if plastic surgery practices increasing marketing during these peak months results in greater practice capture of patients.

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